Influence of the spread of the Beijing genotype of M. tuberculosis and its subtype B0/W148 on the incidence of tuberculosis in the population of the European and Asian Russia

Background. For historical reasons, the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) varies significantly across geographic areas of the Russian Federation. This situation may be associated with the spread of the dominant Beijing genotype of M. tuberculosis (MBT) and of its aggressive B0/W148 subtype in the human population. Establishing a relationship between these genetic variants of MBT and the incidence of tuberculosis will serve as evidence of their epidemiological significance and a reason for decisionmaking in the TB epidemiological surveillance system.

The aim of the study. To assess the relationship between the spread of the Beijing M. tuberculosis genotype and its B0/W148 subtype with the incidence of tuberculosis in the cumulative population of the European and Asian parts of the Russian Federation.

Materials and methods. An epidemiological study was conducted, including an analysis of the distribution data of the Beijing genotype of MBT and its B0/W148 subtype (meta-analysis) in Russia and a study of TB incidence rates in the same regions. To assess the relationship, we used the Pearson’s chi-square test (χ²); the significance level when testing statistical hypotheses (p) was taken as 0.05.

Results. In the European regions of the Russian Federation, a statistically significant relationship was found between the TB incidence and the prevalence of MBT Beijing genotype (χ² = 17.2; p = 0.009) and the absence of such a relationship with the B0/W148 subline (χ² = 9.9; p = 0.127). In the Asian part of the Russian Federation, a highly statistically significant association was found between the incidence of TB and both the incidence of MBT Beijing genotype (χ² = 25.4; p = 0.0001) and the incidence of its B0/W148 subtype (χ² = 29.6; p < 0.0001).

Conclusion. A statistically significant relationship was established between the incidence of TB in the general population and the incidence of MBT Beijing genotype, regardless of the value of the average long-term TB incidence rate. In areas with high TB prevalence, a stable association was determined between the incidence rate not only with MBT of the entire Beijing family, but also with its aggressive subtype B0/W148.

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