Analysis of intra annual spatial dynamics of community-aсquired pneumonia incidence in the urban environment

Background. The spread of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children and adults is interconnected and conditioned by natural, climatic and social factors.

The aim. To assess the relationship between the incidences of CAP in different seasons of the year with the location of educational institutions in the urban settlement.

Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study of the spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics of CAP cases in 2015 in a Siberian city with a population of more than 600 thousand people was carried out. Using GIS, 787 cases of CAP were analyzed among children of preschool and school age and adults. For statistical processing, 111 analyzed territorial units (ATUs) with an area of 250 m2 each were allocated on the maps. The dynamics of morbidity was assessed by weeks and seasons of the year among different age groups.

Results. There was a direct moderate correlation between the number of CAP cases registered during the year with the number of schools and preschool educational institutions in ATU (r = 0.59; p < 0.001). ATUs with the presence and absence of educational institutions differed in the number of epidemic foci of CAP among the total population in winter and spring. The maximum number of cases of CAP among children and adults was registered in the second half of winter (weeks 3–13), the minimum – in the summer months (weeks 25–34).

Conclusions. GIS analysis confirms the more frequent registration of CAP diseases among the total population in urban areas with educational institutions. There was established a direct moderate correlation between the incidence of CAP in children and adults by weeks of the year. Statistically significant differences in the number of cases in areas with and without educational institutions were noted in seasons with a higher incidence (autumn and winter).

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